Thursday, January 26, 2017

Trump’s presidency: What’s at stake for Mexico?

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Mexico City (CNN)It's time to talk about the wall.

US President Donald Trump signed executive orders calling for a border wall Wednesday, followed hours later by Mexican President Enrique Pea Nieto's promise Mexico would never pay for it.
    Officials from both countries are set to meet for a second time Thursday as a chorus of Mexican lawmakers are calling on Pea Nieto to cancel his upcoming visit to the US.
      For many, the wall is a sign that Trump plans to follow through with his campaign promises regarding Mexico -- meaning there's more than just the wall at stake.

      Respect

      Many Mexicans argue what's really at stake is pride.
      Trump kicked off his election campaign in 2015 with a speech in which he accused Mexicans of bringing crime into the United States and being "rapists," which did not sit well with Mexicans.
      However, there is hope for effective communication between the neighbors -- Mexico's new foreign minister, known to have a good relationship with Trump's senior adviser and son-in-law Jared Kushner, met with Mexican senators Tuesday ahead of his first face-to-face diplomatic meeting with the Trump administration in Washington on Thursday.
      Still, Pea Nieto has repeatedly proclaimed Mexico will not pay for the wall.

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      NAFTA

      Mexican government officials tell CNN that the immediate concern is NAFTA, not the wall.
      The free trade agreement between Canada, Mexico and the United States has been a major boon to the Mexican economy, but President Trump believes that is because it siphoned jobs from the US and shipped them south.
      Manufacturing jobs in the United States have declined significantly since 2000.
      One of President Trump's signature campaign promises was to renegotiate NAFTA in order to bring jobs back to the United States.
      Mexico agrees NAFTA can be renegotiated, but only under certain terms, according to Mexico's foreign and economy ministers.
      Economy Minister Ildefonso Guajardo said Mexico will walk away from negotiations with the US if Trump tries to make Mexico pay for the wall in any way or imposes a tax on remittances.
      "Mexico is prepared to walk away from a deal if it (United States) fails to respect Mexico's sovereignty and dignity," Foreign Minister Luis Videgaray reiterated.
      Exports to the US have given the manufacturing industry and employment in Mexico a major boost. Eighty percent of Mexican manufactured exports go to the United States -- nearly half are automobiles. Getting rid of free trade between the countries would hurt the Mexican auto industry in two ways: raise the cost of vehicles exported to the US and, if imported supplies are taxed, raise the cost of production for Mexico.
      According to the US Trade Representative, US goods imported from Mexico totaled $295 billion in 2015, up 638% from 1993 (pre-NAFTA).

      Oil sales

      Oil is the backbone of the Mexican economy, and a lot of it is sold to the US.
      Crude petroleum oil has been one of the leading US import items from Mexico for years by a wide margin, according to a Congressional Research Service report.
      The US purchased $27.7 billion of it in 2014 -- nearly 30 percent higher than the next leading item.
      If the US Treasury Department were to slap a tariff on oil or put some sort of sanction on Mexico, it would likely significantly impact the Mexican economy (though it would also effect US businesses who purchase oil from Mexico.)

      Remittances

      Mexicans abroad, mainly in the US, sent nearly $25 billion in 2015 to their relatives and loved ones back home, Mexico's Central Bank reported in early February -- the first time remittances were the most important source of revenue for Mexico since officials started tracking the figure in 1995.
      That money is a lifeline for many poor Mexicans, especially when the economy is struggling.
      The Trump administration could make it much harder for Mexicans or Americans in the US to send cash to the country by blocking remittances -- an idea he floated on the campaign trial in a letter to the Washington Post.

      Visas

      In the same letter, the Trump campaign also threatened to cancel visas and raise visa fees as means to either fund the wall or get Mexico to pay for it.

      Security cooperation

      The Trump administration could threaten to pull out of security agreements with Mexico that help the country in its war on organized crime and the drug trade.
      The US provided $139 million to Mexico for security assistance in the 2016 fiscal year -- and some $2.6 billion from 2008 to 2016 -- according to a report by the US Congressional Research Service.
      But pulling assistance could backfire; if the violence and drug cartels get more powerful, the effects could spill over into the United States.

      Trump

      Minister Videgaray has laid out a 10-point strategy plan for its relationship with the United States this week, emphasizing human rights, free trade and immigration.
      "I think it is a win-win situation. He (Trump) needs to see that. It is something that, well, the reality from Washington to the border is completely different," said Senator Gabriela Cuevas Barron, head of Mexico's Foreign Affairs committee. "He (Trump) needs to understand the border and the bi-national families, industries, business. There is a different reality that Trump and his team needs to see."

      Time to cancel?

      Some senators say it's time for Mexico to stand firm and are calling for President Pea Nieto to cancel his scheduledmeetings with Trump.
      "We don't accept any aggressions, we are a country that must be treated as equals -- even though we have a lot of asymmetries -- we have been friends, we have been commercial associates. We are two countries that continue to share a prosperous future," Senator Armando Rios Piter told CNN.
      Senator Roberto Gil Zuarth, from Mexico's National Action Party, tweeted, "Given the announcement on the wall, the visit of the Mexican delegation today only makes sense to warn that there will be no meeting."
      Pea Nieto's office tells CNN the President does not have any new announcements to make regarding his meeting with Trump next week.

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